The United States is grappling with a severe egg shortage in early 2025, a crisis that has sent prices soaring to record highs and left grocery store shelves empty. The shortage is primarily driven by a devastating outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, which has decimated poultry populations across the country. Rising production costs, regulatory changes, and extreme weather events have compounded the issue, disrupting the egg supply chain.
Key Causes of the Shortage
1. Bird Flu Outbreak
The ongoing HPAI outbreak, which began in 2022, has been the most significant factor behind the egg shortage. Since the outbreak began, the virus has led to the culling of over 100 million egg-laying hens, with particularly severe losses in late 2024 and early 2025. In December 2024 alone, 18 million birds were culled, followed by another 23 million in January 2025. This represents a loss of nearly 10% of the national egg-laying population, drastically reducing supply.
The emergence of a new genotype of the virus, known as D1.1, has exacerbated the situation. This strain has spread rapidly across North America, affecting all four migratory bird flyways and increasing the risk of transmission to domestic poultry. The virus’s high contagion rate has forced farmers to euthanize entire flocks to prevent further spread, a process that takes an emotional and financial toll on producers.
2. Regulatory and Production Challenges
New state laws mandating cage-free egg production have further strained the supply chain. States like California, Colorado, and Michigan now require eggs to be produced in cage-free environments, which are more resource-intensive and have lower stocking densities. Many of the farms affected by the bird flu outbreak were cage-free facilities, amplifying the impact on supply. These regulations, while aimed at improving animal welfare, have inadvertently contributed to regional disparities in egg availability and prices.
3. Rising Costs and Supply Chain Disruptions
Inflation has driven up the costs of feed, fuel, labor, and biosecurity measures, making egg production more expensive. Feed costs, in particular, have surged due to global grain shortages linked to geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. Chicken feed accounts for 60–70% of production costs, and even minor increases in grain prices can significantly impact overall expenses.
Additionally, supply chain bottlenecks, including truck driver shortages and increased fuel costs, have hindered the efficient distribution of eggs. These logistical challenges have led to localized shortages and forced retailers to impose purchase limits to manage demand.
4. Extreme Weather
Unusual weather patterns, including hurricanes in the southeastern U.S., have disrupted the migratory patterns of wild birds, who are the primary carriers of the HPAI virus. This has increased the likelihood of the virus spreading to domestic poultry farms, further complicating efforts to contain the outbreak.
Impact on Consumers and Businesses
1. Record-High Prices
The average price of a dozen Grade A eggs reached $4.95 in January 2025, more than double the $2.04 recorded in August 2023. In some regions, prices have exceeded $10 per dozen, with specialty eggs like organic and cage-free varieties costing even more. The USDA predicts that prices could rise by an additional 20% in 2025, further straining household budgets.
2. Empty Shelves and Purchase Limits
Grocery stores nationwide are struggling to keep eggs in stock, leading to widespread implementation of purchase limits. Retailers like Trader Joe’s, Costco, and Walmart have capped the number of cartons customers can buy to ensure fair distribution. Some stores have even reported incidents of egg theft as consumers scramble to secure this essential item.
3. Ripple Effects on the Food Industry
Restaurants and bakeries, which rely heavily on eggs, are facing higher costs and supply shortages. Some establishments, like Waffle House, have introduced surcharges on egg-based dishes, while others are adjusting recipes or raising menu prices to cope with the crisis. The shortage is also impacting food manufacturers, who are struggling to maintain production levels for egg-dependent products.
Outlook and Recovery
The timeline for recovery remains uncertain. Replenishing flocks takes six to nine months under normal conditions, but ongoing outbreaks and regulatory hurdles could extend this period. Even in a best-case scenario, where no new outbreaks occur, it will take months for replacement hens to begin producing eggs that reach grocery stores. Experts warn that the shortage and high prices will likely persist throughout 2025.
Final Thoughts
The U.S. egg shortage is a multifaceted crisis rooted in the devastating impact of the HPAI outbreak, compounded by regulatory changes, rising costs, and environmental factors. While efforts are underway to contain the virus and stabilize the supply chain, the road to recovery will be long and challenging. For now, consumers and businesses alike must adapt to a new reality of higher prices and limited availability.
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